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Start 7-day free trial6J · CME · code 097741
Data since 4 Jan 2000 · 1,396 weeks · 1 missing (never interpolated)
The read
How the numbers workThe 6-month COT Index is 90 or above: speculators are the most bullish they've been in six months. The crowd is all-in, so there are few buyers left. The score is forced to 0: don't chase longs. If commercials are at the opposite extreme, it's a reversal watch.
Specs are about as bullish as they've been in 6 months (100/100). The trade is crowded: late to buy, watch for a turn. 6-month (100) is higher than 3-year (84): specs have bought a lot recently, but the position isn't extreme by longer history, so there may be room to run.
Over the last 4 weeks speculators have been meaningfully adding to the bullish side.
Speculators opened new long positions this week: new money betting the currency will rise. The rise in longs was at least as big as any cut in shorts. Longs +59.2K, shorts −50.4K. Open interest rose too: new money confirms it. The strongest bullish kind of week. It adds +1 to the conviction score. Better still if open interest rose too.
52 weeks shown. Drag to pan; charts move together.
Hedgers are the most short in 6 months (0/100). If specs are extreme long, that's a reversal watch (bearish turn). This is active now: reversal watch.
Quarterly expiry week: positions roll to the next contract, so open interest and the week's change can be distorted.
Price vs positioningPrice confirms.Specs have been buying and price agrees: JPY +3.03% over 4 weeks. The positioning signal has price behind it.
The score is forced to 0 in an extreme regime.
Largest gap first.