EUREuro FX

The 6-month COT Index is between 20 and 80: normal positioning. Trend mode: follow the direction of speculator flow. The score applies as normal.

Specs lean bearish, in the lower half of their 6 months range (37/100), and rising. Bearish zone; best when falling. 6-month (37) is higher than 3-year (19): specs have bought a lot recently, but the position isn't extreme by longer history, so there may be room to run.

Over the last 4 weeks speculators have been meaningfully adding to the bullish side.

Speculators opened new long positions this week: new money betting the currency will rise. The rise in longs was at least as big as any cut in shorts. Longs +10.5K, shorts −5.1K. But open interest fell, so conviction is weaker than it looks. The strongest bullish kind of week. It adds +1 to the conviction score. Better still if open interest rose too.